Week 4 Battle Royale Ranking and Strategy


The traditional DFS (salary cap) hasn’t changed in years and has been infiltrated by optimizers, but there is a new DFS format in Underdog Fantasy called “Battle Royale”. These are 6-person, 6-turn snake drafts that only take a few minutes. This week’s prize structure has a total of $250,000 with $50,000 for first place on a $5 entry, but there are also $25, $50, and $100 entry options. Safe to say the format is growing, which is why I’m putting more time and effort into the content around it.

I wrote this general strategy guide for Battle Royale with the following main points: 1) We keep stacking and adding correlations like traditional DFS, and 2) We always look for lower roster games like DFS traditional. The latter can be exploited even more in Battle Royale compared to traditional DFS as there is an anchor bias towards default rankings and ADPs. Let’s see how to exploit it this week.

Level 1: Obvious batteries

  • Josh Allen (1.6 ADP) – A perfect game against the Ravens’ battered defense, Allen is my QB1 of the week. The question is, do you stack Allen with another wide receiver or not. Stefon Diggs (4.7 ADP) is basically impossible to stack so I need a stacking pair Gabe Davis (20.5 ADP) or Dawson Knox (35.5 ADP) later in the draft if I choose Allen. Aside from Andrews, the TE position is weak, so I don’t mind the Allen and Knox teams at all, considering the latter often goes undrafted. … Back options: Rashod Bateman (33.1 ADP).

  • Lamar Jackson (2.7 ADP) – The Bills are also injured on defense, so the game is good for the MVP candidate. Pairing Jackson with Andrews (5.1 ADP) will be nearly impossible, but it’s the best stack by far if you’re lucky enough to get it. If there is no Andrews, Bateman (33.1 ADP) is a staple of Jackson’s teams. By the way, I would rank Andrews in the top 4 overall. … Returning options: Gabe Davis (20.5 ADP), Dawson Knox (35.5).

  • Jalen Hurts (3.4 ADP) – Because he’s easier to stack, there’s an argument for Hurts ahead of the other two QBs. AJ Brown (9.9 ADP), DeVonta Smith (23.2 ADP) or Dallas Goedert (29.4 ADP) are cumulative options. The Eagles pass enough and play with enough pace to double up with Hurts, even though he’s still running a ton. … Back options: Christian Kirk (26.1 ADP), James Robinson (34.0 ADP), Evan Engram (26.0).

Tier 2: mostly drafted

  • Justin Herbert (21.9 ADP) – There’s a drop in level from the top 3 QBs to Herbert and the rest of those QBs, but Herbert still has a clear ceiling against the Texans with his healthier skill guys. Austin Ekeler (16.8 ADP), Mike Williams (30.5 ADP), Keenan Allen (35.3 ADP) and Gerald Everett (35.6 ADP) are all going affordable. Double batteries are recommended. … Bring back options: Brandin Cooks, candidate for positive regression (35.7 ADP).

  • Kyler Murray (24.1 ADP) – None of his pass catchers are drafted early: Marquise Brown (18.9 ADP), Zach Ertz (32.9 ADP) and James Conner (35.8). There’s a lot of hero ball in Arizona, but we know the peak potential of the week in this offense. … Back options: Christian McCaffrey (9.3) suddenly questionable, DJ Moore (35.8 ADP).

Level 3: less than 10% drafted

  • Marcus Mariota (35.4 ADP) – He’s undrafted nearly every time, but the Falcons have a projected top-10 team total and Mariota has a condensed target tree between Kyle Pitts (22.1 ADP) and Drake London (33.5 ADP) . This is a good formula for DFS tournaments. … Bring back the options: Nick Chubb (7.9 ADP), Amari Cooper (20.5 ADP) and David Njoku (33.0).

  • Aaron Rodgers (33.7 ADP) – The Packers have a healthy team total of 25.25 points, and Rodgers has a higher injury chance around him right now. He is best paired with largely undrafted (35.5 ADP) Romeo Doubs and/ or Allen Lazard (35.9 ADP), but Aaron Jones (29.6 ADP) is also positively correlated given his pass-game work inside the red zone. … Return options: None.

  • Derek Carr (35.2 ADP) – A top-10 total has the Raiders in the dashing lineup despite the tough game on paper against the Broncos. Carr will have a condensed target share if Hunter Renfrow (DNP Wednesday) can no longer play. I love the price of Davante Adams (11.1 ADP). Same thing with Darren Waller (27.3 ADP). If you’re a real sick person, the deep threat full-time Mack Hollins (35.9 ADP) is also there. … Back options: Courtland Sutton (23.2 ADP), Javonte Williams (34.8 ADP) and Jerry Jeudy (35.8 ADP).

  • Russell Wilson (35.3 ADP) – It hasn’t been pretty, but we know that Russ has been up several weeks in his DNA. Courtland Sutton (23.2 ADP) is my favorite stacking partner, but Jerry Jeudy (35.8 ADP) is an option, along with Javonte Williams (34.8 ADP) as he is running a fair amount of road. … Return options: These are excellent. Davante Adams (11.1 ADP), Darren Waller (27.3 ADP).

  • Trevor Lawrence (34.7 ADP) – He plays in a well-trained scheme that puts Christian Kirk (26.1 ADP) in advantageous matches. We’ll see if Zay Jones (35.9 ADP) is available. Otherwise, Marvin Jones (36.0) is a real sick game. Just like Travis Etienne (36.0 ADP) or James Robinson (34.0 ADP) if we can get lucky receiving scores. … Bring back the options: AJ Brown (9.9 ADP), DeVonta Smith (23.2 ADP), Dallas Goedert (29.4 ADP) or Miles Sanders (35.9 ADP).

  • Jared Goff (35.4 ADP) – It’ll be harder to justify if Amon-Ra St. Brown (16.8 ADP) can’t play. Goff played well though and the betting markets respect them with an implied team total in the top 5. TJ Hockenson (35.3 ADP) and DJ Chark (35.9 ADP) are in for the galactic brain sick. … Back options: DK Metcalf (34.4 ADP) and Tyler Lockett (35.2 ADP)

You can find my weekly rankings here to compare them to ADPs.

  • Javonte Williams (34.8 ADP) – The snaps were down last week, but I refuse to believe Mike Boone is a real thing. This season, Williams is the RB4 in fantasy use. It is a candidate for positive regression. We shouldn’t be afraid of the Raiders defense.

  • James Conner (35.8 ADP) – He’s the RB8 in fantasy use to date, but Conner was slower on a depressed ankle. I bet his 60% breakage rate increases in the future. We saw a lot of multi-TD advantages in this attack.

  • Khalil Herbert (33.8 ADP) – David Montgomery hasn’t been ruled out yet, but he’s headed in the wrong direction. Herbert was the only RB to touch the ball in the second half last week after Trestan Ebner’s fumble. More importantly, Herbert is the focal point of this first offense. He is good at the game.

  • Brandin Cooks (35.7 ADP) – A candidate for massive positive regression against a defense without EDGE Joey Bosa and CB1 JC Jackson. Cooks is the WR17 used to date.

  • Drake London (33.5 ADP) – Damn good at the game, and this time the Falcons have an implied top-12 team total.

  • Keenan Allen (35.3 ADP) – The questionable tag has kept its price tag in check, but it’s a great indoor game and the Chargers may really need to address the control game with LT star Rashawn Slater (biceps) for the year .

  • DK Metcalf (34.4 ADP) – Another candidate for positive regression, Metcalf had 21.5 PPR half points expected last week when the Seahawks overshot more than usual. It is quietly the WR20 used this season.

  • Dawson Knox (35.5 ADP) – It’s been a rocky start, but Knox is 9th on TE routes and the bills are projected for the most points of the week. This gives him a multi-TD advantage at a position that lacks an advantage in general, aside from Mark Andrews.

  • Gerald Everett (35.6 ADP) – The TE7 on the use of the TE7 this season. He’s the athletic offset of the Chargers.

Coming soon!


Comments are closed.